MeritValue

Marpai, Inc.

MRAIdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Marpai, Inc. earns about -191% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 72% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.2M1$24.3M2$37.2M2$28.2M3$18.1M3
Net income−$16M4−$26.5M5−$28.8M6−$22.1M7−$16.6M7
Operating cash flow−$10.8M8−$35.2M9−$15.7M10−$15.2M11−$7.45M11
Capital expenditure$273,43312$362,76813———
Free cash flow (derived)−$11.1M8−$35.6M9———
Total debt$014$20.2M15$20M16$23.9M17$49.8M18
Cash & equivalents$19.2M19$13.8M20$1.15M21$764,00022$133,00022
Diluted shares10.1M5.1M7.0M11.5M17.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$18.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.53
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$28.67

10 shares is a claim on −$18.75 of net worth that earned you −$9.53 last year, against $28.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-191% avg · 5y
FY21 -118%FY22 -168%FY23 -401%FY24 —FY25 -76%

It earned an average -191% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+72% shares · 5y

Share count is up 72% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-035218 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036590 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-034129 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-035218 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036590 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002871 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-034129 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-035218 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036590 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002871 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-034129 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-035218 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036590 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-000657 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-035218 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036590 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-034129 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-034129 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-035218 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036590 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002871 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-034129 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)