MeritValue

Marqeta, Inc.

MQdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Marqeta, Inc. earns about -33% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 27% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.69 and $3.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$517.2M1$748.2M2$676.2M3$507M3$624.9M3
Net income−$163.9M4−$184.8M5−$223M6$27.3M6−$13.9M6
Operating cash flow$57M7−$13M8$21.1M9$58.2M9$162.6M9
Capital expenditure$2.74M10$2.32M11$762,00012$2.42M12$1.84M12
Free cash flow (derived)$54.2M7−$15.3M8$20.3M9$55.8M9$160.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.25B13$1.18B14$981M15$923M15$709.4M15
Diluted shares362.8M545.4M532.5M518.8M462.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$16.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.48
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $16.49 of net worth that earned you −$0.3 and generated $3.48 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-33% avg · 5y
FY21 -40%FY22 -51%FY23 -69%FY24 17%FY25 -20%

It earned about -33% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+27% shares · 5y

Share count is up 27% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.69 and $3.89 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.2%
  • fcfBase$55.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.2%
  • fcfBase$55.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.26
Base5.2%$3.69
Bull10.2%$4.2

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007663 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008232 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001522540-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007663 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008232 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001522540-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007663 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008232 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001522540-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007663 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008232 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001522540-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007663 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008232 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001522540-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)