MeritValue

MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS, INC.

MPWRdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS, INC. earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $93.88 and $815.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.21B1$1.79B2$1.82B3$2.21B3$2.79B3
Net income$242M4$437.7M5$427.4M6$1.59B6$621.5M6
Operating cash flow$320M7$246.7M8$638.2M9$788.4M9$838.2M9
Capital expenditure$94.4M10$58.8M11$57.6M12$146.1M12$172M12
Free cash flow (derived)$225.6M7$187.8M8$580.6M9$642.3M9$666.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$189.3M13$288.6M14$527.8M15$691.8M15$1.1B15
Diluted shares47.9M48.4M48.8M48.8M48.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$731.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$128.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$137.9
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $731.02 of net worth that earned you $128.65 and generated $137.9 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 32%FY23 28%FY24 25%FY25 26%

It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $93.88 and $815.72 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$815.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$642.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$456.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$642.3M
Earnings Power Value
$93.88
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$437.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$145.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $456.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$212.72
Base20.0%$456.24
Bull20.0%$456.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006133 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005903 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006113 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006133 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005903 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006113 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006133 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005903 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006113 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006133 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005903 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006113 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004540 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006133 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006113 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)