MeritValue

M-tron Industries, Inc.

MPTIdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

M-tron Industries, Inc. earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.21 and $110.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$26.7M1$31.8M2$41.2M3$49M4$54.4M4
Net income$1.58M5$1.8M6$3.49M7$7.64M8$8.45M8
Operating cash flow$2.96M9$2.04M10$4.41M11$7.52M12$10.7M12
Capital expenditure$1.1M13$936,00014$1.28M15$1.9M16$2.55M16
Free cash flow (derived)$1.86M9$1.11M10$3.12M11$5.62M12$8.11M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.64M17$926,00018$3.91M19$12.6M20$20.9M20
Diluted shares2.7M2.7M2.7M2.9M3.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$195.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.18
Free cash flow it threw off
$25.13
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $195.94 of net worth that earned you $26.18 and generated $25.13 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 13%FY23 22%FY24 42%FY25 21%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 5y

Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.21 and $110.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$110.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$5.62M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$63.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$5.62M
Earnings Power Value
$11.21
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.49M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $63.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%$31.38
Base20.0%$63.3
Bull20.0%$63.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-004848 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009243 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009645 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009844 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-004848 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009243 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009645 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009844 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-004848 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009243 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009645 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009844 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-004848 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009243 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009645 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009844 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-004848 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009243 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009645 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009844 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)