MeritValue

M-tron Industries, Inc.

MPTIdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

M-tron Industries, Inc. earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.81 and $104.04 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$26.7M1$31.8M2$41.2M3$49M4$54.4M4
Net income$1.58M5$1.8M6$3.49M7$7.64M8$8.45M8
Operating cash flow$2.96M9$2.04M10$4.41M11$7.52M12$10.7M12
Capital expenditure$1.1M13$936,00014$1.28M15$1.9M16$2.55M16
Free cash flow (derived)$1.86M9,13$1.11M10,14$3.12M11,15$5.62M12,16$8.11M12,16
Total debt$145,00017$76,00017———
Cash & equivalents$2.64M18$926,00019$3.91M20$12.6M21$20.9M21
Diluted shares2.7M2.7M2.7M2.9M3.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$195.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.18
Free cash flow it threw off
$25.13
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $195.94 of net worth that earned you $26.18 and generated $25.13 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 13%FY23 22%FY24 42%FY25 21%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 5y

Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 48% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.81 and $104.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a conservative ceiling on what a defensive investor should pay, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$104.04
assumptions (10)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Terminal growth2.50%
  • Projection period10 years
  • FCF growth20.0%
  • Starting free cash flow$5.62M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$60.27
assumptions (10)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Terminal growth2.50%
  • Projection period5 years
  • FCF growth20.0%
  • Starting free cash flow$5.62M
Earnings Power Value
$10.81
assumptions (8)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Normalized earnings$3.49M
  • Growth assumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.08
assumptions (1)
  • Graham multiplier (P/E × P/B)22.5×

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.27%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $60.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$30.15
Base20.0%$60.27
Bull20.0%$60.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2023-03-30 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-004848 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K filed 2024-03-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009243 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K filed 2025-03-27 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009645 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K filed 2026-03-26 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009844 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K filed 2023-03-30 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-004848 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K filed 2024-03-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009243 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K filed 2025-03-27 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009645 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K filed 2026-03-26 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009844 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K filed 2023-03-30 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-004848 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K filed 2024-03-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009243 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K filed 2025-03-27 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009645 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K filed 2026-03-26 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009844 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K filed 2023-03-30 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-004848 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K filed 2024-03-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009243 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K filed 2025-03-27 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009645 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K filed 2026-03-26 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009844 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K filed 2023-03-30 · periods ending 2021-12-31, 2022-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-004848 (LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations)
  18. 10-K filed 2023-03-30 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-004848 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K filed 2024-03-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009243 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K filed 2025-03-27 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009645 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K filed 2026-03-26 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009844 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)