Marathon Petroleum Corp
MPCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileMarathon Petroleum Corp earns about 48% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 52% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $327.85 and $1,199.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $120B1 | $177.5B2 | $148.4B3 | $138.9B3 | $132.7B3 |
| Net income | $9.74B4 | $14.5B5 | $9.68B6 | $3.45B6 | $4.05B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $4.36B7 | $16.4B8 | $14.1B9 | $8.67B9 | $8.25B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.46B10 | $2.42B11 | $1.89B12 | $2.53B12 | $3.49B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $2.9B7 | $13.9B8 | $12.2B9 | $6.13B9 | $4.77B9 |
| Total debt | $571M13 | $1.07B14 | $1.95B15 | $3.05B16 | $2.37B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $5.29B17 | $8.63B18 | $5.44B19 | $3.21B20 | $3.67B20 |
| Diluted shares | 638.0M | 516.0M | 409.0M | 341.0M | 306.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $565.82 of net worth that earned you $132.25 and generated $155.78 of cash last year, against $77.48 of debt.
It earned about 48% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 52% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 315% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $327.85 and $1,199.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$6.13B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$6.13B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$9.68B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $290.57 |
| Base | 20.0% | $657.6 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $657.6 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001510295-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001510295-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001510295-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001510295-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001510295-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001510295-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001510295-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001510295-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001510295-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001510295-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001510295-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001510295-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001510295-23-000012 (DebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001510295-24-000015 (DebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001510295-25-000012 (DebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001510295-26-000009 (DebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001510295-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001510295-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001510295-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001510295-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)