MeritValue

MID PENN BANCORP INC

MPBdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MID PENN BANCORP INC earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 104% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.26 and $31.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$123.3M1$165.6M2$236.3M3$286.6M3$323.8M3
Net income$29.3M4$54.8M5$37.4M6$49.4M6$56.2M6
Operating cash flow$65.9M7$60M8$52.3M9$51.4M9$80M9
Capital expenditure$3.5M10$4.25M11$2.77M12$6.92M12$8.23M12
Free cash flow (derived)$62.4M7$55.7M8$49.6M9$44.5M9$71.8M9
Total debt$013$102.6M14$241.5M15$2M16$20.8M16
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares10.8M15.9M16.4M17.1M22.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$369.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.54
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.6
Debt you’d be carrying
$9.46

10 shares is a claim on $369.65 of net worth that earned you $25.54 and generated $32.6 of cash last year, against $9.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 11%FY23 14%FY24 27%FY25 25%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+104% shares · 5y

Share count is up 104% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.26 and $31.21 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$28.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$49.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$31.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$49.6M
Earnings Power Value
$23.26
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$49.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$46.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $31.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$31.21
Base0.0%$31.21
Bull5.0%$39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879635-24-000049 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000879635-25-000030 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879635-26-000026 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879635-24-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000879635-25-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879635-26-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879635-24-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000879635-25-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879635-26-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879635-24-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000879635-25-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879635-26-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879635-23-000016 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000879635-24-000049 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879635-25-000030 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000879635-26-000026 (ShortTermBorrowings)