MeritValue

MOTORCAR PARTS OF AMERICA INC

MPAAdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MOTORCAR PARTS OF AMERICA INC earns about -10% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $34.64 and $37.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$650.3M1$683.1M2$717.7M3$757.4M3$789.8M3
Net income$7.36M4−$4.21M5−$49.2M6−$19.5M6$12.4M6
Operating cash flow−$44.9M7−$21.8M8$39.2M9$45.5M9$19.2M9
Capital expenditure$7.55M10$4.2M11$1M12$4.58M12$3.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$52.4M7−$26M8$38.2M9$40.9M9$15.5M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$23M13$11.6M14$14M15$9.43M16$14.7M16
Diluted shares19.6M19.3M19.6M19.7M20.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$133.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.74
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $133.14 of net worth that earned you $6.2 and generated $7.74 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-10% avg · 5y
FY22 3%FY23 -1%FY24 -21%FY25 -23%FY26 -6%

It earned about -10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $34.64 and $37.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$37.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$38.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$34.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$38.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$13.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $34.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$28.03
Base5.0%$34.64
Bull10.0%$42.55

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-24-029700 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001140361-25-021940 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001140361-26-024463 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-24-029700 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001140361-25-021940 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001140361-26-024463 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-24-029700 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001140361-25-021940 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001140361-26-024463 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-24-029700 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001140361-25-021940 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001140361-26-024463 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-23-029664 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001140361-24-029700 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001140361-25-021940 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001140361-26-024463 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)