MeritValue

MP Materials Corp. / DE

MPdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MP Materials Corp. / DE earns about 5% on invested capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$332M1$527.5M2$253.4M3$203.9M3$224.4M3
Net income$135M4$289M5$24.3M6−$65.4M6−$85.9M6
Operating cash flow$102M7$343.5M8$62.7M9$13.3M9−$155.8M9
Capital expenditure$123.9M10$326.6M11$261.9M12$186.4M12$172.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$21.9M7$16.9M8−$199.2M9−$173.1M9−$328.1M9
Total debt$1.35B13$678.4M14$682M15$1.82B16$2B16
Cash & equivalents$1.18B17$136.6M18$263.4M19$282.4M19$1.17B19
Diluted shares189.8M193.5M178.2M169.9M170.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$116.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.05
Free cash flow it threw off
−$19.29
Debt you’d be carrying
$117.41

10 shares is a claim on $116.31 of net worth that earned you −$5.05 and generated −$19.29 of cash last year, against $117.41 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 16%FY23 2%FY24 -2%FY25 -3%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 48% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$1.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$24.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801368-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801368-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801368-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801368-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801368-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801368-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801368-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801368-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801368-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801368-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801368-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801368-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801368-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801368-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801368-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001801368-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001801368-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001801368-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001801368-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)