MeritValue

MOVADO GROUP INC

MOVdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

MOVADO GROUP INC earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.95 and $43.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$732.4M1$744.2M2$664.4M3$653.4M3$671.3M3
Net income$91.6M4$90.4M5$41.3M6$18.4M6$26.6M6
Operating cash flow$130.8M7$54.3M8$76.8M9−$1.5M9$57.9M9
Capital expenditure$5.66M10$7.09M11$8.22M12$7.97M12$4.51M12
Free cash flow (derived)$125.2M7$47.3M8$68.6M9−$9.47M9$53.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$277.1M13$251.6M14$262.1M15$208.5M15$230.5M15
Diluted shares23.7M23.0M22.6M22.6M22.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$225.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.62
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $225.01 of net worth that earned you $11.74 and generated $23.62 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY22 48%FY23 36%FY24 17%FY25 7%FY26 10%

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.95 and $43.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$41.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$53.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$43.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$53.4M
Earnings Power Value
$18.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$41.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $43.94
The three cases
Bear0.0%$43.94
Base0.0%$43.94
Bull5.0%$52.11

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036181 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054522 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-115298 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036181 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054522 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-115298 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036181 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054522 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-115298 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036181 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054522 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-115298 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036181 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000950170-25-054522 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001193125-26-115298 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)