MeritValue

MOSAIC CO

MOSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MOSAIC CO earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.45 and $37.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.4B1$19.1B2$13.7B3$11.1B3$12.1B3
Net income$1.63B4$3.58B5$1.16B6$174.9M6$540.7M6
Operating cash flow$2.19B7$3.94B8$2.41B9$1.3B9$824.8M9
Capital expenditure$1.29B10$1.25B11$1.4B12$1.25B12$1.36B12
Free cash flow (derived)$898.4M7$2.69B8$1B9$47.4M9−$534.6M9
Total debt$302.8M13$224.9M14$399.7M15$847.1M16$759.9M16
Cash & equivalents$769.5M17$735.4M18$348.8M19$272.8M19$276.6M19
Diluted shares381.6M356.0M333.2M320.7M318.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$378.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.96
Free cash flow it threw off
−$16.76
Debt you’d be carrying
$23.83

10 shares is a claim on $378.96 of net worth that earned you $16.96 and generated −$16.76 of cash last year, against $23.83 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 31%FY23 11%FY24 2%FY25 6%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 151% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.45 and $37.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$47.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$47.4M
Earnings Power Value
$37.85
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.16B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.07
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.61
Base0.0%$0.61
Bull5.0%$1.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001618034-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001618034-25-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001285785-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001618034-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001618034-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001285785-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001618034-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001618034-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001285785-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001618034-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001618034-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001285785-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001618034-23-000003 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001618034-24-000004 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001618034-25-000003 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001285785-26-000017 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001618034-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001618034-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001285785-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)