MeritValue

Morningstar, Inc.

MORNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Morningstar, Inc. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $47.47 and $353.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.7B1$1.87B2$2.04B3$2.28B3$2.45B3
Net income$193.3M4$70.5M5$141.1M6$369.9M6$374.2M6
Operating cash flow$449.9M7$297.8M8$316.4M9$591.6M9$589.7M9
Capital expenditure$101.8M10$129.5M11$119.1M12$142.7M12$147.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$348.1M7$168.3M8$197.3M9$448.9M9$442.6M9
Total debt$359.4M13$1.14B14$1B15$698.6M16$1.07B16
Cash & equivalents$483.8M17$376.6M18$337.9M19$502.7M20$474.5M20
Diluted shares43.4M42.9M42.9M43.1M42.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$289.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$88.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$104.88
Debt you’d be carrying
$254.17

10 shares is a claim on $289.55 of net worth that earned you $88.67 and generated $104.88 of cash last year, against $254.17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 4%FY23 7%FY24 20%FY25 21%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 198% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $47.47 and $353.14 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$353.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.9%
  • fcfBase$442.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$244.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.9%
  • fcfBase$442.6M
Earnings Power Value
$47.47
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$193.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$76.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $244.14
The three cases
Bear0.0%$135.68
Base12.9%$244.14
Bull17.9%$300.95

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001289419-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001289419-25-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001289419-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001289419-24-000010 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001289419-25-000041 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001289419-26-000013 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001289419-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001289419-25-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001289419-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001289419-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001289419-25-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001289419-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001289419-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001289419-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001289419-25-000041 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001289419-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001289419-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001289419-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001289419-25-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001289419-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)