Hello Group Inc.
MOMOdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on fileHello Group Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.36 and $10.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.29B1 | $1.84B2 | $1.69B3 | $1.45B4 | $1.48B5 |
| Net income | −$459.1M6 | $214.6M7 | $274.9M8 | $142.4M9 | $115.3M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $244.7M11 | $177.9M12 | $320.7M13 | $224.7M14 | $169.2M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $15M16 | $11.7M17 | $81.2M18 | $39.1M19 | $70.4M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $229.7M11 | $166.2M12 | $239.6M13 | $185.6M14 | $98.8M15 |
| Total debt | — | — | $273M21 | $324.1M22 | $448,00023 |
| Cash & equivalents | $874.1M24 | $727.6M25 | $791.6M26 | $564.8M27 | $760.8M28 |
| Diluted shares | 404.7M | 423.8M | 401.8M | 373.6M | 338.6M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $46.81 of net worth that earned you $3.41 and generated $2.92 of cash last year, against $0.01 of debt.
It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.36 and $10.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$185.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$185.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$142.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $10.08 |
| Base | 0.0% | $10.08 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $11.97 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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