MeritValue

MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC.

MOHdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC. earns about 83% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $144.98 and $156.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.8B1$32B2$34.1B3$40.7B3$45.4B3
Net income$659M4$792M5$1.09B6$1.18B6$472M6
Operating cash flow$2.12B7$773M8$1.66B9$644M9−$535M9
Capital expenditure$77M10$91M11$84M12$100M12$101M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.04B7$682M8$1.58B9$544M9−$636M9
Total debt$2.17B13$2.18B14$2.18B15$2.92B16$3.77B16
Cash & equivalents$4.44B17$4.01B18$4.85B19$4.66B19$4.25B19
Diluted shares58.6M58.5M58.1M57.7M52.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$769.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$89.22
Free cash flow it threw off
−$120.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$711.91

10 shares is a claim on $769.19 of net worth that earned you $89.22 and generated −$120.23 of cash last year, against $711.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
83% avg · 5y
FY21 205%FY22 77%FY23 76%FY24 43%FY25 13%

It earned about 83% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 73% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $144.98 and $156.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$144.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$544M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$156.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$544M
Earnings Power Value
$155.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$792M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$124.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $156.04
The three cases
Bear0.0%$156.04
Base0.0%$156.04
Bull5.0%$191.6

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001179929-24-000033 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001179929-25-000023 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001179929-26-000005 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001179929-24-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001179929-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001179929-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001179929-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001179929-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001179929-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001179929-24-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001179929-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001179929-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001179929-23-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001179929-24-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001179929-25-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001179929-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001179929-24-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001179929-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001179929-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)