MeritValue

MOGU Inc.

MOGUdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MOGU Inc. earns about -49% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$53.2M1$33.8M2$22.2M3$19.5M4$18.2M5
Net income−$100.9M6−$25.9M7−$8.21M8−$8.62M9$266,00010
Operating cash flow−$18M11−$1.47M12−$5.6M13−$9.36M14−$6.87M15
Capital expenditure$8.7M16$2.76M17$13M18$1.39M19$594,00020
Free cash flow (derived)−$26.7M11−$4.23M12−$18.6M13−$10.7M14−$7.47M15
Total debt$1.59M21$022$023$024$024
Cash & equivalents$69.2M25$60.6M26$49.7M27$11.3M28$19.4M29
Diluted shares2.52B2.55B2.60B2.63B2.64B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $0.28 of net worth that earned you $0 and generated −$0.03 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-49% avg · 5y
FY22 -144%FY23 -67%FY24 -23%FY25 -11%FY26 1%

It earned an average -49% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001193125-22-194940 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-23-035668 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-084745 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-100536 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2026-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-315001 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001193125-22-194940 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-23-035668 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-084745 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-100536 (NetIncomeLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2026-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-315001 (NetIncomeLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001193125-22-194940 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-23-035668 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-084745 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-100536 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2026-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-315001 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001193125-22-194940 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-23-035668 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-084745 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-100536 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2026-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-315001 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001193125-22-194940 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-084745 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  23. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-100536 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  24. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-315001 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  25. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001193125-22-194940 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  26. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0000950170-23-035668 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  27. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000950170-24-084745 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  28. 20-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000950170-25-100536 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  29. 20-F · period ending 2026-03-31 · accession 0001193125-26-315001 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)