MeritValue

MOOG INC.

MOG-Adata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MOOG INC. earns about 9% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $56.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.85B1$3.04B2$3.32B3$3.61B3$3.86B3
Net income$157.2M4$155.2M5$175.2M6$208.8M6$235M6
Operating cash flow$293.2M7$246.8M8$139.7M9$197.9M9$273.1M9
Capital expenditure$128.7M10$139.4M11$177.3M12$152M12$144.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$164.5M7$107.4M8−$37.7M9$45.9M9$128.4M9
Total debt$903.7M13$837.8M14$863.1M15$874.1M15$945.7M15
Cash & equivalents$99.6M16$102M17$69M18$61.7M18$62M18
Diluted shares32.3M32.1M32.0M32.4M32.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$621.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$73.26
Free cash flow it threw off
$40.01
Debt you’d be carrying
$294.77

10 shares is a claim on $621.07 of net worth that earned you $73.26 and generated $40.01 of cash last year, against $294.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 8%FY23 9%FY24 10%FY25 10%

It earned an average 9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$45.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$45.9M
Earnings Power Value
$56.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$175.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$101.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000067887-23-000115 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000067887-24-000166 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-054103 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000067887-23-000115 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000067887-24-000166 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-054103 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000067887-23-000115 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000067887-24-000166 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-054103 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000067887-23-000115 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000067887-24-000166 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-054103 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000067887-22-000089 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000067887-23-000115 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-054103 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-02 · accession 0000067887-22-000089 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-01 · accession 0000067887-23-000115 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-054103 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)