MODINE MANUFACTURING CO
MODdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileMODINE MANUFACTURING CO earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.49 and $141.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.05B1 | $2.3B2 | $2.41B3 | $2.58B3 | $3.18B3 |
| Net income | $85.2M4 | $153.1M5 | $161.5M6 | $184M6 | $121.5M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $11.5M7 | $107.5M8 | $214.6M9 | $213.3M9 | $248.7M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $40.3M10 | $50.7M11 | $87.7M12 | $84M12 | $143.3M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$28.8M7 | $56.8M8 | $126.9M9 | $129.3M9 | $105.4M9 |
| Total debt | $7.7M13 | $3.7M14 | $12M15 | $9.3M16 | $7.5M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $45.2M17 | $67.1M18 | $60.1M19 | $71.6M20 | $73.5M20 |
| Diluted shares | 52.5M | 52.8M | 53.4M | 53.9M | 53.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $222.03 of net worth that earned you $22.58 and generated $19.59 of cash last year, against $1.39 of debt.
It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.49 and $141.9 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$126.9M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$126.9M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$153.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $34.93 |
| Base | 20.0% | $78.13 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $78.13 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-24-027133 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001558370-25-008058 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-066795 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-24-027133 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001558370-25-008058 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-066795 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-24-027133 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001558370-25-008058 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-066795 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-24-027133 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001558370-25-008058 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-066795 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-23-026536 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001140361-24-027133 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001558370-25-008058 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-066795 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001140361-23-026536 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001140361-24-027133 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001558370-25-008058 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001104659-26-066795 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)