MeritValue

ALTRIA GROUP, INC.

MOdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ALTRIA GROUP, INC. earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $42.77 and $65.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$26B1$25.1B2$24.5B3$24B3$23.3B3
Net income$2.48B4$5.76B5$8.13B6$11.3B6$6.95B6
Operating cash flow$8.41B7$8.26B8$9.29B9$8.75B9$9.29B9
Capital expenditure$169M10$205M11$196M12$142M12$216M12
Free cash flow (derived)$8.24B7$8.05B8$9.09B9$8.61B9$9.07B9
Total debt$56.1B13$53.4B14$52.5B15$49.9B16$51.4B16
Cash & equivalents$4.54B17$4.03B18$3.69B19$3.13B19$4.47B19
Diluted shares1.84B1.80B1.78B1.72B1.68B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$20.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41.28
Free cash flow it threw off
$53.92
Debt you’d be carrying
$305.51

10 shares is a claim on −$20.81 of net worth that earned you $41.28 and generated $53.92 of cash last year, against $305.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 15%FY23 20%FY24 25%FY25 16%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $42.77 and $65.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$65.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.6%
  • fcfBase$9.07B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$62.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.6%
  • fcfBase$9.07B
Earnings Power Value
$42.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.95B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $62.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%$49.14
Base3.6%$62.32
Bull8.6%$83.58

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000764180-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000764180-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000764180-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000764180-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000764180-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000764180-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000764180-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000764180-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000764180-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000764180-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000764180-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000764180-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000764180-23-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000764180-24-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000764180-25-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000764180-26-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000764180-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000764180-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000764180-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)