MeritValue

Montauk Renewables, Inc.

MNTKdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Montauk Renewables, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$148.1M1$213.4M2$174.9M3$175.7M3$176.4M3
Net income−$4.53M4$35.2M5$14.9M6$9.73M6$1.75M6
Operating cash flow$42.9M7$81.1M8$41.1M9$43.8M9$30.3M9
Capital expenditure$9.99M10$22.3M11$63.1M12$62.3M12$116.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$32.9M7$58.8M8−$22M9−$18.5M9−$86.2M9
Total debt$158.6M13$142.9M14$127.1M15$111.4M16$257.9M16
Cash & equivalents$53.3M17$105.2M18$73.8M19$45.6M19$23.8M19
Diluted shares141.0M142.6M142.2M142.4M143.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$18.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.12
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$18.03

10 shares is a claim on $18.39 of net worth that earned you $0.12 and generated −$6.03 of cash last year, against $18.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 14%FY23 6%FY24 3%FY25 -0%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 63% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.71
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.73M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031587 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039495 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-102364 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031587 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039495 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-102364 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031587 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039495 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-102364 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031587 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039495 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-102364 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-072678 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031587 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039495 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-102364 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031587 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039495 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-102364 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)