MeritValue

Monster Beverage Corp

MNSTdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Monster Beverage Corp earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.88 and $68.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.54B1$6.31B2$7.14B3$7.49B3$8.29B3
Net income$1.38B4$1.19B5$1.63B6$1.51B6$1.91B6
Operating cash flow$1.16B7$887.7M8$1.72B9$1.93B9$2.1B9
Capital expenditure$43.9M10$188.7M11$221.4M12$264.1M12$132.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.11B7$699M8$1.5B9$1.66B9$1.97B9
Total debt———$747.9M13—
Cash & equivalents$1.33B14$1.31B15$2.3B16$1.53B17$2.09B17
Diluted shares1.07B1.07B1.06B1.01B984.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$83.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.97
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $83.84 of net worth that earned you $19.36 and generated $19.97 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY21 26%FY22 21%FY23 27%FY24 29%FY25 31%

It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.88 and $68.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$68.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.4%
  • fcfBase$1.66B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$46.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.4%
  • fcfBase$1.66B
Earnings Power Value
$15.88
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.51B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $46.35
The three cases
Bear0.0%$26.28
Base14.4%$46.35
Bull19.4%$55.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-029425 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000248 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020831 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-029425 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000248 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020831 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-029425 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000248 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020831 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-029425 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000248 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020831 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020831 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-027245 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-029425 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000248 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020831 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)