MeritValue

MainStreet Bancshares, Inc.

MNSBdata completeness 75%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

MainStreet Bancshares, Inc. earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.88 and $30.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.43M1$2.42M2$2.15M3$2M3$2.18M3
Net income$22.2M4$26.7M5$26.6M6−$9.98M6$15.6M6
Operating cash flow$29.1M7$33.5M8$31.6M9$14.7M9$14.8M9
Capital expenditure$1.81M10$1.13M11$497,00012$909,00012$4.17M12
Free cash flow (derived)$27.3M7$32.4M8$31.1M9$13.8M9$10.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$93.2M13————
Diluted shares7.6M7.5M7.5M7.6M7.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$285.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.9
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $285.65 of net worth that earned you $20.4 and generated $13.9 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 32%FY22 19%FY23 30%FY24 18%FY25 33%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.88 and $30.02 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$23.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$13.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$13.8M
Earnings Power Value
$30.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$22.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.82
Base0.0%$25.82
Bull5.0%$32.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007608 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007948 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008073 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007608 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007948 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008073 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007608 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007948 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008073 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007608 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007948 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008073 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-011471 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)