MeritValue

MONRO, INC.

MNROdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MONRO, INC. earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.98 and $43.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.36B1$1.33B2$1.28B3$1.2B3$1.16B3
Net income$61.6M4$39M5$37.6M6−$5.18M6$2.17M6
Operating cash flow$173.8M7$215M8$125.2M9$131.9M9$70.4M9
Capital expenditure$27.8M10$39M11$25.5M12$26.4M12$31.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$145.9M7$176M8$99.7M9$105.6M9$38.8M9
Total debt$353M13$210M14$204M15$122.5M16$120M16
Cash & equivalents$7.95M17$4.88M18$6.56M19$20.8M20$14.6M20
Diluted shares34.0M32.7M31.9M29.9M30.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$197.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.72
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$40

10 shares is a claim on $197.14 of net worth that earned you $0.72 and generated $12.93 of cash last year, against $40 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY22 4%FY23 3%FY24 3%FY25 -3%FY26 -1%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 66% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.98 and $43.98 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$40.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$99.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$43.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$99.7M
Earnings Power Value
$12.98
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$37.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $43.98
The three cases
Bear0.0%$43.98
Base0.0%$43.98
Bull5.0%$55.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001562762-24-000155 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-25 · accession 0001562762-25-000146 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0000876427-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001562762-24-000155 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-25 · accession 0001562762-25-000146 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0000876427-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001562762-24-000155 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-25 · accession 0001562762-25-000146 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0000876427-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001562762-24-000155 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-25 · accession 0001562762-25-000146 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0000876427-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001562762-23-000263 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-25 · accession 0001562762-24-000155 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001562762-25-000146 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-29 · accession 0000876427-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-26 · accession 0001562762-23-000263 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-25 · accession 0001562762-24-000155 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001562762-25-000146 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-29 · accession 0000876427-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)