MeritValue

MACH NATURAL RESOURCES LP

MNRdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'stockholdersEquity'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

The applicable estimate puts fair value near $11.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$392.5M1$937.4M2$762.3M3$969.6M3$1.18B3
Net income$138.4M4$516.8M5$68.5M6$185.2M6$143M6
Operating cash flow$198.5M7$553.5M8$491.7M9$505.3M9$507M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$84.9M10$807M11$751.3M12$1.14B12
Cash & equivalents$59.3M13$29.4M14$152.8M15$105.8M16$42.6M16
Diluted shares——94.9M97.7M131.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
—
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.87
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$86.98

10 shares of this business that earned you $10.87 last year, against $86.98 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+39% shares · 5y

Share count is up 39% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1248% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$11.26
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$143M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-014131 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012591 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017249 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-014131 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012591 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017249 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-014131 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012591 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017249 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-014131 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012591 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017249 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012591 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-014131 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012591 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017249 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)