MeritValue

MEDICINOVA INC

MNOVdata completeness 88%21 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MEDICINOVA INC earns about -61% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.04M1—$1M2—$409,6573
Net income−$10.1M4−$14.1M5−$8.57M6−$11M7−$12M7
Operating cash flow−$9.38M8−$12.9M9−$7.43M10−$10.6M11−$9.81M11
Capital expenditure$28,73212$5,01013$21,29914$89515$2,89915
Free cash flow (derived)−$9.41M8−$12.9M9−$7.45M10−$10.6M11−$9.81M11
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$71.4M16$18.5M17$51M18$40.4M19$30.8M19
Diluted shares48.6M49.0M49.0M49.0M49.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.45
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $8.48 of net worth that earned you −$2.45 and generated −$2 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-61% avg · 5y
FY21 -65%FY22 -21%FY23 -59%FY24 -72%FY25 -88%

It earned an average -61% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010297 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023301 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100432 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010297 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015920 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023301 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100432 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010297 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015920 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023301 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100432 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010297 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015920 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023301 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100432 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010297 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015920 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023301 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-100432 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)