monday.com Ltd.

MNDYdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

monday.com Ltd. earns about -5% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 75% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $211.24 and $362.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$308.2M1$519M2$729.7M3$972M3$1.23B3
Net income−$129.3M4−$136.9M5−$1.88M6$32.4M6$118.7M6
Operating cash flow$16.4M7$27.1M8$215.4M9$311.1M9$333.6M9
Capital expenditure$11.6M10$16M11$7.9M12$13.2M12$20.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.78M7$11.1M8$207.5M9$297.9M9$313.3M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$886.8M13$885.9M14$1.12B15$1.41B16$1.5B16
Diluted shares30.3M45.8M48.4M52.4M53.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$234.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$59.01
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $234.87 of net worth that earned you $22.37 and generated $59.01 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 -18%FY22 -20%FY23 -0%FY24 3%FY25 10%

It earned about -5% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+75% shares · 5y

Share count is up 75% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $211.24 and $362.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$362.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$297.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$211.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$297.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$34.41
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $211.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$108.48
Base20.0%$211.24
Bull20.0%$211.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000943 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000852 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000870 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000943 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000852 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000870 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000943 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000852 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000870 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000943 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000852 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000870 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-23-000966 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-000943 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000852 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-000870 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)