MeritValue

MERIT MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC

MMSIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MERIT MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.18 and $117.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.07B1$1.15B2$1.26B3$1.36B3$1.52B3
Net income$48.5M4$74.5M5$94.4M6$120.4M6$128.5M6
Operating cash flow$147.2M7$114.3M8$145.2M9$220.8M9$297.4M9
Capital expenditure$27.9M10$45M11$34.3M12$35.1M12$81.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$119.3M7$69.3M8$110.9M9$185.7M9$215.7M9
Total debt$485.7M13$396M14$1.65B15$1.46B16$1.47B16
Cash & equivalents$67.8M17$58.4M18$587M19$376.7M19$446.4M19
Diluted shares57.4M57.7M58.4M59.4M60.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$262.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$35.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$242.82

10 shares is a claim on $262.04 of net worth that earned you $21.25 and generated $35.67 of cash last year, against $242.82 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 5%FY23 5%FY24 5%FY25 5%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 202% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.18 and $117.87 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$117.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.9%
  • fcfBase$185.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$68.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.9%
  • fcfBase$185.7M
Earnings Power Value
$16.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$94.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$35.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $68.36
The three cases
Bear0.0%$26.98
Base15.9%$68.36
Bull20.0%$83.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000856982-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000856982-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000856982-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000856982-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000856982-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000856982-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000856982-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000856982-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000856982-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000856982-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000856982-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000856982-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000856982-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000856982-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000856982-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000856982-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000856982-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000856982-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000856982-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)