MeritValue

MAXIMUS, INC.

MMSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MAXIMUS, INC. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $52.1 and $263.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.25B1$4.63B2$4.9B3$5.31B3$5.43B3
Net income$291.2M4$203.8M5$161.8M6$306.9M6$319M6
Operating cash flow$517.3M7$289.8M8$314.3M9$515.3M9$429.4M9
Capital expenditure$36.6M10$56.1M11$90.7M12$114.2M12$63.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$480.8M7$233.7M8$223.6M9$401.1M9$366.2M9
Total debt$3.02B13$1.36B14$1.25B15$1.13B16$1.33B16
Cash & equivalents$135.1M17$40.7M18$65.4M19$183.1M20$222.4M20
Diluted shares62.4M62.0M61.5M61.5M57.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$289.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$55.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$63.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$230.36

10 shares is a claim on $289.02 of net worth that earned you $55.08 and generated $63.22 of cash last year, against $230.36 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 7%FY23 6%FY24 11%FY25 11%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 56% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $52.1 and $263.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$263.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.1%
  • fcfBase$366.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$158.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.1%
  • fcfBase$366.2M
Earnings Power Value
$52.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$291.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$59.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $158.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$71.13
Base16.1%$158.12
Bull20.0%$186.91

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001032220-23-000096 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001032220-24-000094 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001032220-25-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001032220-23-000096 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001032220-24-000094 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001032220-25-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001032220-23-000096 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001032220-24-000094 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001032220-25-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001032220-23-000096 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001032220-24-000094 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001032220-25-000053 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001032220-22-000074 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001032220-23-000096 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001032220-24-000094 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001032220-25-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001032220-22-000074 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001032220-23-000096 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001032220-24-000094 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001032220-25-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)