MeritValue

3M CO

MMMdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

3M CO earns about 5% on invested capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $79.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$35.4B1$26.2B2$24.6B3$24.6B3$24.9B3
Net income$5.92B4$5.78B5−$7B6$4.17B6$3.25B6
Operating cash flow$7.45B7$5.59B8$6.68B9$1.82B9$2.31B9
Capital expenditure$1.6B10$1.75B11$1.62B12$1.18B12$910M12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.85B7$3.84B8$5.07B9$638M9$1.4B9
Total debt$36B13$33.8B14$31.4B15$28B16$26.9B16
Cash & equivalents$4.56B17$3.66B18$5.93B18$5.6B18$5.24B18
Diluted shares585.3M567.6M553.9M552.4M541.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$86.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$60.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$25.79
Debt you’d be carrying
$496.47

10 shares is a claim on $86.86 of net worth that earned you $60.04 and generated $25.79 of cash last year, against $496.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 10%FY23 -27%FY24 17%FY25 13%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.4B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.4B
Earnings Power Value
$79.89
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.17B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.24
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000066740-23-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000066740-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000066740-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000066740-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000066740-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000066740-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000066740-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000066740-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000066740-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000066740-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000066740-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000066740-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000066740-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000066740-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000066740-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000066740-26-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000066740-25-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000066740-26-000014 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)