MeritValue

Marcus & Millichap, Inc.

MMIdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Marcus & Millichap, Inc. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.85 and $9.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.3B1$1.3B2$645.9M3$696.1M3$755.2M3
Net income$142.5M4$104.2M5−$34M6−$12.4M6−$1.91M6
Operating cash flow$255.9M7$13.6M8−$72.4M9$21.7M9$66.7M9
Capital expenditure$6.86M10$11.7M11$9.37M12$7.87M12$7.87M12
Free cash flow (derived)$249M7$1.96M8−$81.8M9$13.8M9$58.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$382.1M13$235.9M13$170.8M14$153.4M14$161.9M14
Diluted shares40.2M40.2M38.7M38.7M38.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$154.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.1
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $154.87 of net worth that earned you −$0.49 and generated $15.1 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 45%FY22 22%FY23 -7%FY24 -2%FY25 0%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.85 and $9.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$13.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$13.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.24
Base0.0%$9.24
Bull5.0%$10.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001578732-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001578732-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012419 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001578732-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001578732-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012419 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001578732-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001578732-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012419 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001578732-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001578732-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012419 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001578732-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012419 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)