Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc.

MLYSdata completeness 75%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -49% on equity, but has diluted owners by 1209% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	—	—
Net income	−$29.8M¹	−$71.9M²	−$177.8M³	−$154.7M³
Operating cash flow	−$29.2M⁴	−$81.2M⁵	−$166.3M⁶	−$142.4M⁶
Capital expenditure	—	$0⁷	$96,000⁸	$15,000⁸
Free cash flow (derived)	—	−$81.2M⁵	−$166.4M⁶	−$142.4M⁶
Total debt	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$87.7M⁹	$49.3M¹⁰	$114.1M¹¹	$172.9M¹¹
Diluted shares	5.2M	36.2M	48.5M	67.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$95.58

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$22.86

Free cash flow it threw off

−$21.05

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $95.58 of net worth that earned you −$22.86 and generated −$21.05 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-49% avg · 4y

FY22 —FY23 -30%FY24 -93%FY25 -24%

It earned an average -49% on equity over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+1209% shares · 4y

Share count is up 1209% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012358 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001933414-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001933414-26-000056 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012358 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001933414-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001933414-26-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001933414-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001933414-26-000056 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012358 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001933414-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001933414-26-000056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)