MeritValue

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

MLTXdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics earns about -267% on invested capital, and has bought back 82% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$4.54M1−$50M2−$36M3−$118.9M3−$227.3M3
Operating cash flow−$611,0714−$55.9M5−$42.8M6−$116.6M6−$196M6
Capital expenditure—$16,0097$284,0008$520,0008$35,0008
Free cash flow (derived)—−$55.9M5−$43.1M6−$117.1M6−$196M6
Total debt$15M9$09—$010$74.1M10
Cash & equivalents$8.04M11$39.5M12$451.2M13$180.4M14$334.5M14
Diluted shares360.0M29.4M49.1M62.9M64.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$47.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$35.26
Free cash flow it threw off
−$30.41
Debt you’d be carrying
$11.49

10 shares is a claim on $47.23 of net worth that earned you −$35.26 and generated −$30.41 of cash last year, against $11.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-267% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -542%FY23 -78%FY24 -36%FY25 -412%

It earned an average -267% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−82% shares · 5y

Share count is down 82% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 394% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-008253 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001821586-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001821586-26-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-008253 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001821586-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001821586-26-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001821586-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001821586-26-000002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001821586-23-000007 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001821586-26-000002 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001821586-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001821586-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001821586-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001821586-26-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)