MeritValue

MILLER INDUSTRIES INC /TN/

MLRdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MILLER INDUSTRIES INC /TN/ earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.71 and $20.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$717.5M1$848.5M2$1.15B3$1.26B3$790.3M3
Net income$16.3M4$20.3M5$58.3M6$63.5M6$23M6
Operating cash flow$15.3M7−$19.2M8$11M9$16.9M9$98.7M9
Capital expenditure$9.15M10$28.9M11$12.1M12$15.4M12$13.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.12M7−$48.1M8−$1.13M9$1.52M9$85M9
Total debt—$45M13$60M14$65M15$33.3M15
Cash & equivalents$54.3M16$40.2M17$29.9M17$24.3M17$44.7M17
Diluted shares11.4M11.4M11.5M11.6M11.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$362.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$73.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$28.67

10 shares is a claim on $362.1 of net worth that earned you $19.81 and generated $73.19 of cash last year, against $28.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 8%FY23 17%FY24 15%FY25 6%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 26% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.71 and $20.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.52M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.52M
Earnings Power Value
$20.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$23M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$40.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.85
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.85
Base0.0%$2.85
Bull5.0%$3.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002625 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002276 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023486 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002625 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002276 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023486 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002625 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002276 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023486 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002625 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002276 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023486 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002625 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002276 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023486 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002276 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023486 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)