MeritValue

MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC

MLMdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $121.44 and $194.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.41B1$6.16B2$5.85B3$5.66B3$6.15B3
Net income$702.5M4$867M5$1.17B6$2B6$1.14B6
Operating cash flow$1.14B7$991M8$1.53B9$1.46B9$1.79B9
Capital expenditure$423.1M10$482M11$650M12$855M12$807M12
Free cash flow (derived)$714.6M7$509M8$878M9$604M9$978M9
Total debt$10.2B13$10.1B14$8.69B15$10.8B16$10.6B16
Cash & equivalents$258.4M17$358M18$1.27B19$670M19$67M19
Diluted shares62.6M62.5M62.1M61.6M60.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,655.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$187.62
Free cash flow it threw off
$161.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,756.77

10 shares is a claim on $1,655.45 of net worth that earned you $187.62 and generated $161.39 of cash last year, against $1,756.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 6%FY23 7%FY24 10%FY25 6%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $121.44 and $194.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$184.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.3%
  • fcfBase$878M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$121.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.3%
  • fcfBase$878M
Earnings Power Value
$194.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.14B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$264.41
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $121.44
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.44
Base8.3%$121.44
Bull13.3%$188.77

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019275 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024770 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059193 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019275 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024770 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059193 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019275 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024770 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059193 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019275 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024770 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059193 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004361 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019275 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024770 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059193 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019275 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024770 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059193 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)