MeritValue

MILLERKNOLL, INC.

MLKNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MILLERKNOLL, INC. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.29 and $38.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$3.95B1$4.09B2$3.63B3$3.67B3$3.84B3
Net income−$27.1M4$42.1M5$82.3M6−$36.9M6$91.5M6
Operating cash flow−$11.9M7$162.9M8$352.3M9$209.3M9$199.9M9
Capital expenditure$94.7M10$83.3M11$78.4M12$107.6M12$122.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$106.6M7$79.6M8$273.9M9$101.7M9$77.6M9
Total debt$2.82B13$2.8B13$43.5M14$16M15$25.1M15
Cash & equivalents$230.3M16$223.5M17$230.4M17$193.7M18$167.7M18
Diluted shares73.2M76.0M74.0M69.0M69.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$193.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.62

10 shares is a claim on $193.68 of net worth that earned you $13.2 and generated $11.19 of cash last year, against $3.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY22 1%FY23 3%FY24 7%FY25 -2%FY26 8%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 99% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.29 and $38.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$38.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.5%
  • fcfBase$101.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.5%
  • fcfBase$101.7M
Earnings Power Value
$6.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$42.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.02
Base8.5%$32.24
Bull13.5%$39.1

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-28 · accession 0000066382-24-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-03 · accession 0000066382-25-000069 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-01 · accession 0000066382-26-000092 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-28 · accession 0000066382-24-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-03 · accession 0000066382-25-000069 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-01 · accession 0000066382-26-000092 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-28 · accession 0000066382-24-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-03 · accession 0000066382-25-000069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-01 · accession 0000066382-26-000092 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-28 · accession 0000066382-24-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-03 · accession 0000066382-25-000069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-01 · accession 0000066382-26-000092 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-28 · accession 0000066382-23-000058 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-01 · accession 0000066382-25-000069 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-31 · accession 0000066382-26-000092 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-28 · accession 0000066382-22-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-03 · accession 0000066382-26-000092 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-31 · accession 0000066382-26-000092 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)