MeritValue

MUELLER INDUSTRIES INC

MLIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MUELLER INDUSTRIES INC earns about 44% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $56.22 and $343.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.77B1$3.98B2$3.42B3$3.77B3$4.18B3
Net income$468.5M4$658.3M5$602.9M6$604.9M6$765.2M6
Operating cash flow$311.7M7$723.9M8$672.8M9$645.9M9$755.4M9
Capital expenditure$31.8M10$37.6M11$54M12$80.2M12$68.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$279.9M7$686.3M8$618.7M9$565.7M9$686.6M9
Total debt$5.63M13$4.77M14$981,00015$1.09M15$016
Cash & equivalents$87.9M17$461M18$1.17B19$1.04B20$1.37B20
Diluted shares113.6M113.1M113.7M114.0M111.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$287.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$68.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $287.91 of net worth that earned you $68.63 and generated $61.59 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
44% avg · 5y
FY21 42%FY22 49%FY23 54%FY24 35%FY25 42%

It earned about 44% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $56.22 and $343.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$343.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$618.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$193.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$618.7M
Earnings Power Value
$56.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$604.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$66.66
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $193.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$91.55
Base20.0%$193.2
Bull20.0%$193.2

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000089439-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000089439-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000089439-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000089439-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000089439-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000089439-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000089439-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000089439-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000089439-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000089439-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000089439-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000089439-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000089439-23-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000089439-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000089439-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-27 · accession 0000089439-26-000008 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000089439-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000089439-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000089439-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000089439-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)