MeritValue

Melco Resorts & Entertainment LTD

MLCOdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Melco Resorts & Entertainment LTD earns about 0% on invested capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.01B1$1.35B2$3.78B3$4.64B3$5.16B3
Net income−$811.8M4−$930.5M5−$326.9M6$43.5M6$185M6
Operating cash flow−$268.8M7−$619.4M8$622.7M9$626.7M9$818.1M9
Capital expenditure$532.7M10$479.9M11$132.9M12$34.2M12$15.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$801.4M7−$1.1B8$489.8M9$592.5M9$802.2M9
Total debt$13.1B13$16.8B14$14.9B15$14.3B16$13.5B16
Cash & equivalents$1.65B17$1.81B18$1.31B19$1.15B20$1.02B20
Diluted shares1.43B1.39B1.31B1.30B1.20B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$10.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.54
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$112.29

10 shares is a claim on −$10.37 of net worth that earned you $1.54 and generated $6.67 of cash last year, against $112.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 -4%FY23 1%FY24 3%FY25 5%

It earned an average 0% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$592.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$592.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-074554 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-059759 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105023 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-074554 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-059759 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-074554 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-059759 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-074554 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-059759 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105023 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-086859 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-074554 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-059759 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-086859 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-074554 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-059759 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)