MeritValue

Mount Logan Capital Inc.

MLCIdata completeness 75%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'cash'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Mount Logan Capital Inc. earns about -13% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 41% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$49.8M1$53.6M1
Net income−$10.4M2−$60.8M2
Operating cash flow−$37.8M3−$22.2M3
Capital expenditure——
Free cash flow (derived)——
Total debt—$76.3M4
Cash & equivalents——
Diluted shares6.1M8.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$105.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$70.77
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$88.69

10 shares is a claim on $105.79 of net worth that earned you −$70.77 last year, against $88.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-13% avg · 2y
FY24 -2%FY25 -24%

It earned an average -13% on invested capital over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+41% shares · 2y

Share count is up 41% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002051820-26-000039 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002051820-26-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002051820-26-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0002051820-26-000039 (LongTermDebt)