MeritValue

MESA LABORATORIES INC /CO/

MLABdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MESA LABORATORIES INC /CO/ earns about -35% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.73 and $149.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$184.3M1$219.1M2$216.2M3$241M3$249.1M3
Net income$1.87M4$930,0005−$254.2M6−$1.97M6$6.71M6
Operating cash flow$39.2M7$28M8$44.1M9$46.8M9$42.8M9
Capital expenditure$4.43M10$4.54M11$2.57M12$4.25M12$3.25M12
Free cash flow (derived)$34.8M7$23.4M8$41.6M9$42.6M9$39.6M9
Total debt———$71.3M13$67.5M14
Cash & equivalents$49.3M15$32.9M16$28.2M17$27.3M18$26.9M18
Diluted shares5.3M5.4M5.4M5.4M5.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$334.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.06
Free cash flow it threw off
$71.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$121.29

10 shares is a claim on $334.67 of net worth that earned you $12.06 and generated $71.12 of cash last year, against $121.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-35% avg · 5y
FY22 1%FY23 1%FY24 -182%FY25 1%FY26 3%

It earned about -35% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.73 and $149.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$149.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.1%
  • fcfBase$41.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$131.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.1%
  • fcfBase$41.6M
Earnings Power Value
$1.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$930,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.19
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $131.66
The three cases
Bear0.0%$99.43
Base6.1%$131.66
Bull11.1%$163.79

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-021606 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-018586 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000724004-26-000047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-021606 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-018586 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000724004-26-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-021606 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-018586 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000724004-26-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-021606 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-018586 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0000724004-26-000047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-018586 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2026-03-31 · accession 0000724004-26-000047 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-016028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-021606 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-018586 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0000724004-26-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)