MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC earns about 36% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $69.44 and $288.66 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $699M1 | $718.3M2 | $752.5M3 | $817.1M3 | $846.3M3 |
| Net income | $257.9M4 | $250.2M5 | $258.1M6 | $274.2M6 | $246.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $282.1M7 | $289.2M8 | $333.8M9 | $385.2M9 | $382.1M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $17.5M10 | $13.1M11 | $9.33M12 | $9.94M12 | $8.2M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $264.6M7,10 | $276.1M8,11 | $324.4M9,12 | $375.3M9,12 | $373.9M9,12 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | $013 | $220M13 |
| Cash & equivalents | $506.7M14 | $430.7M15 | $451.3M16 | $544.5M17 | $519.7M17 |
| Diluted shares | 38.1M | 37.6M | 37.7M | 37.7M | 37.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.
10 shares is a claim on $308.5 of net worth that earned you $66.41 and generated $100.69 of cash last year, against $59.24 of debt.
It earned about 36% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $69.44 and $288.66 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a conservative ceiling on what a defensive investor should pay, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Terminal growth2.50%
- Projection period10 years
- FCF growth10.6%
- Starting free cash flow$373.9M
assumptions (10)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Terminal growth2.50%
- Projection period5 years
- FCF growth10.6%
- Starting free cash flow$373.9M
assumptions (8)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Normalized earnings$257.9M
- Growth assumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $144.82 |
| Base | 10.6% | $222.59 |
| Bull | 15.6% | $270.31 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 10.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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See pricing →Follow MKTX and keep your own price beside the value. The same engine, with the same receipts.
MeritValue on the App Store →- 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018935 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K filed 2025-02-24 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025606 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018935 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K filed 2025-02-24 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025606 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067009 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018935 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K filed 2025-02-24 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025606 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018935 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K filed 2025-02-24 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025606 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067009 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K filed 2023-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003824 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018935 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K filed 2025-02-24 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025606 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K filed 2026-02-24 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)