MeritValue

MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC

MKTXdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC earns about 36% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $71.96 and $305.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$699M1$718.3M2$752.5M3$817.1M3$846.3M3
Net income$257.9M4$250.2M5$258.1M6$274.2M6$246.6M6
Operating cash flow$282.1M7$289.2M8$333.8M9$385.2M9$382.1M9
Capital expenditure$17.5M10$13.1M11$9.33M12$9.94M12$8.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$264.6M7$276.1M8$324.4M9$375.3M9$373.9M9
Total debt———$013$220M13
Cash & equivalents$506.7M14$430.7M15$451.3M16$544.5M17$519.7M17
Diluted shares38.1M37.6M37.7M37.7M37.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$308.5
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$66.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$100.69
Debt you’d be carrying
$59.24

10 shares is a claim on $308.5 of net worth that earned you $66.41 and generated $100.69 of cash last year, against $59.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
36% avg · 5y
FY21 48%FY22 39%FY23 31%FY24 32%FY25 29%

It earned about 36% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $71.96 and $305.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$305.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.6%
  • fcfBase$373.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$234.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.6%
  • fcfBase$373.9M
Earnings Power Value
$71.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$257.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$67.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $234.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$151.94
Base10.6%$234.31
Bull15.6%$284.9

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018935 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025606 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018935 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025606 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018935 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025606 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018935 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025606 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067009 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003824 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018935 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025606 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)