MeritValue

MKS INC

MKSIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MKS INC earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 22% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.13 and $45.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.95B1$3.55B2$3.62B3$3.59B3$3.93B3
Net income$551M4$333M5−$1.84B6$190M6$295M6
Operating cash flow$640M7$529M8$319M9$528M9$645M9
Capital expenditure$87M10$164M11$87M12$118M12$148M12
Free cash flow (derived)$553M7$365M8$232M9$410M9$497M9
Total debt$1.64B13$10B14$9.74B14$4.54B15$4.2B15
Cash & equivalents$966M16$909M17$507M18$420M19$418M19
Diluted shares55.7M59.9M66.8M67.6M67.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$401.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$43.57
Free cash flow it threw off
$73.41
Debt you’d be carrying
$620.53

10 shares is a claim on $401.62 of net worth that earned you $43.57 and generated $73.41 of cash last year, against $620.53 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 3%FY23 -11%FY24 7%FY25 8%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+22% shares · 5y

Share count is up 22% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 156% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.13 and $45.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$24.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$410M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$30.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$410M
Earnings Power Value
$45.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$295M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$62.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $30.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$30.65
Base0.0%$30.65
Bull5.0%$51.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021071 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026433 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066820 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021071 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026433 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066820 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021071 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026433 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066820 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021071 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026433 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066820 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007851 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021071 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066820 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007851 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021071 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026433 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066820 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)