MeritValue

MARKEL GROUP INC.

MKLdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MARKEL GROUP INC. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $1,726.3 and $4,092.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4B1$5.24B1$14.3B2$14.8B2$15.5B2
Net income$2.42B3−$216.3M4$2B5$2.75B5$2.11B5
Operating cash flow$2.27B6$2.71B7$2.79B8$2.59B8$2.76B8
Capital expenditure$145.2M9$254.7M10$258.6M11$255M11$206.9M11
Free cash flow (derived)$2.13B6$2.45B7$2.53B8$2.34B8$2.55B8
Total debt$4.36B12$4.1B13$3.78B14$4.33B15$4.3B15
Cash & equivalents$3.98B16$4.14B17$3.75B18$3.69B19$3.96B19
Diluted shares13.8M13.6M13.4M13.0M12.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$14,704.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1,665.88
Free cash flow it threw off
$2,019.58
Debt you’d be carrying
$3,402.76

10 shares is a claim on $14,704.11 of net worth that earned you $1,665.88 and generated $2,019.58 of cash last year, against $3,402.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 0%FY23 15%FY24 17%FY25 12%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1,726.3 and $4,092.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4,092.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.9%
  • fcfBase$2.53B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3,658.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.9%
  • fcfBase$2.53B
Earnings Power Value
$1,726.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.11B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2,366.12
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3,658.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2,829.14
Base5.9%$3,658.51
Bull10.9%$4,512.13

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001096343-23-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001096343-26-000020 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001096343-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001096343-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001096343-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001096343-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001096343-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001096343-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001096343-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001096343-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001096343-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001096343-23-000033 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001096343-24-000025 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001096343-25-000027 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001096343-26-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001096343-23-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001096343-24-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001096343-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001096343-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)