MeritValue

MCCORMICK & CO INC

MKCdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MCCORMICK & CO INC earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.05 and $50.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.32B1$6.35B2$6.66B3$6.72B3$6.84B3
Net income$755.3M4$682M5$680.6M6$788.5M6$789.4M6
Operating cash flow$828.3M7$651.5M8$1.24B9$921.9M9$962.2M9
Capital expenditure$278M10$262M10$263.9M11$274.9M11$221.8M11
Free cash flow (derived)$550.3M7$389.5M8$973.4M9$647M9$740.4M9
Total debt$10.6B12$10.3B13$8.82B14$8.63B15$7.96B15
Cash & equivalents$351.7M16$334M17$166.6M18$186.1M19$95.9M19
Diluted shares269.9M270.2M269.8M269.6M269.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$212.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.48
Debt you’d be carrying
$295.58

10 shares is a claim on $212.94 of net worth that earned you $29.3 and generated $27.48 of cash last year, against $295.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 5%FY23 6%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.05 and $50.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$50.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.4%
  • fcfBase$740.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$31.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.4%
  • fcfBase$740.4M
Earnings Power Value
$29.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$755.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $31.93
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.07
Base10.4%$31.93
Bull15.4%$45.63

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000063754-24-000027 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000063754-25-000005 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000063754-26-000037 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000063754-24-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000063754-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000063754-26-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000063754-24-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000063754-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000063754-26-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000063754-23-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000063754-26-000037 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000063754-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000063754-24-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000063754-25-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0000063754-26-000037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0000063754-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0000063754-24-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0000063754-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0000063754-26-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)