MeritValue

TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.

MITTdata completeness 63%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. earns about 31% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 88% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $18.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$104.2M1−$53.1M2$53.8M3$55.7M4$48.7M4
Operating cash flow$26.3M5$22.5M6$28.1M7$55.8M8$59.6M8
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$68.1M9$84.6M10$111.5M11$118.7M12$57.8M12
Diluted shares16.2M22.9M21.1M29.5M30.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$183.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.92
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $183.47 of net worth that earned you $15.92 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
31% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 16%FY23 64%FY24 29%FY25 25%

It earned an average 31% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+88% shares · 5y

Share count is up 88% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$18.24
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$53.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.28
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001514281-23-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001514281-24-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001514281-25-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011775 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001514281-23-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001514281-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001514281-25-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011775 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001514281-23-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001514281-24-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001514281-25-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011775 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)