MeritValue

MITEK SYSTEMS INC

MITKdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MITEK SYSTEMS INC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.76 and $20.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$119.8M1$144.8M2$172.6M3$172.1M3$179.7M3
Net income$7.98M4$3.69M5$8.03M6$3.28M6$8.8M6
Operating cash flow$37.3M7$21.1M8$31.6M9$31.7M9$55.3M9
Capital expenditure$1.39M10$1.13M11$1.03M12$1.44M12$1.16M12
Free cash flow (derived)$36M7$20M8$30.6M9$30.3M9$54.2M9
Total debt———$2.7M13$4.34M14
Cash & equivalents$30.3M15$32.1M16$58.9M17$93.5M18$154.2M18
Diluted shares45.1M45.8M46.5M47.5M46.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$51.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.87
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.55
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.92

10 shares is a claim on $51.2 of net worth that earned you $1.87 and generated $11.55 of cash last year, against $0.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 9%FY23 10%FY24 -1%FY25 10%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 61% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.76 and $20.72 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$20.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.4%
  • fcfBase$30.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.4%
  • fcfBase$30.6M
Earnings Power Value
$1.76
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.98M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.68
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.11
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.49
Base9.4%$17.11
Bull14.4%$20.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950123-24-002926 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000807863-24-000142 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-056520 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950123-24-002926 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000807863-24-000142 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-056520 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950123-24-002926 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000807863-24-000142 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-056520 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950123-24-002926 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000807863-24-000142 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-056520 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000807863-24-000142 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-056520 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000807863-23-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950123-24-002926 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000807863-24-000142 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-056520 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)