MeritValue

Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

MIRMdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns about -614% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 66% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.21 and $9.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.1M1$77.1M2$186.4M3$336.9M3$521.3M3
Net income−$84M4−$135.7M5−$163.4M6−$87.9M6−$23.4M6
Operating cash flow−$132.8M7−$120.1M8−$70.9M9$10.3M9$55.8M9
Capital expenditure$24,00010$278,00011$109,00012$993,00012$954,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$132.8M7−$120.4M8−$71.1M9$9.33M9$54.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$31.3M13$28M14$286.3M15$222.5M16$296.7M16
Diluted shares30.3M34.0M40.9M47.5M50.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$62.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.93
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $62.69 of net worth that earned you −$4.65 and generated $10.93 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-614% avg · 5y
FY21 -75%FY22 -98%FY23 —FY24 -2189%FY25 -94%

It earned about -614% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+66% shares · 5y

Share count is up 66% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.21 and $9.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$9.33M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$9.33M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$8.57
Base5.0%$9.21
Bull10.0%$9.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032289 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001759425-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001759425-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032289 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001759425-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001759425-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032289 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001759425-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001759425-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032289 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001759425-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001759425-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006715 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032289 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001759425-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001759425-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)