MeritValue

MIND TECHNOLOGY, INC

MINDdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MIND TECHNOLOGY, INC earns about -6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 40% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.34 and $2.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$23.1M1$25M2$36.5M3$46.9M4$40.9M4
Net income−$15.1M5−$8.83M6$274,0007$5.07M8$750,0008
Operating cash flow−$17.1M9−$2.91M10−$4.97M11$651,00012$2.59M12
Capital expenditure$834,00013$570,00014$290,00015$437,00016$663,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$18M9−$3.48M10−$5.26M11$214,00012$1.92M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$5.11M17$778,00018$5.29M19$5.34M20$19.1M20
Diluted shares13.8M1.4M1,4064.1M8.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$49.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.31
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $49.73 of net worth that earned you $0.9 and generated $2.31 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY22 -43%FY23 -19%FY24 1%FY25 23%FY26 6%

It earned about -6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−40% shares · 5y

Share count is down 40% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.34 and $2.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$214,000
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$214,000
Earnings Power Value
$0.34
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$274,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.65
Base5.0%$2.74
Bull10.0%$2.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001437749-23-011925 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001437749-24-013973 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001437749-25-013105 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001437749-26-012831 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001437749-23-011925 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001437749-24-013973 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001437749-25-013105 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001437749-26-012831 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001437749-23-011925 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001437749-24-013973 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001437749-25-013105 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001437749-26-012831 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001437749-23-011925 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001437749-24-013973 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001437749-25-013105 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001437749-26-012831 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001437749-23-011925 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001437749-24-013973 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001437749-25-013105 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001437749-26-012831 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)