MeritValue

MIDDLEBY Corp

MIDDdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

MIDDLEBY Corp earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $85.09 and $402.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$3.25B1$4.03B2$3.24B3$3.15B3$3.2B3
Net income$488.5M4$436.6M5$400.9M6$428.4M6−$277.7M6
Operating cash flow$423.4M7$332.6M8$628.8M9$686.8M9$630.2M9
Capital expenditure$46.6M10$67.3M11$59.2M12$36.7M12$70.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$376.8M7$265.3M8$569.6M9$650.1M9$559.5M9
Total debt$4.83B13$5.44B14$4.85B15$4.79B16$2.17B16
Cash & equivalents$180.4M17$162M18$247.5M19$638.8M20$222.2M20
Diluted shares56.7M54.9M54.1M54.2M52.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$532.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$53.23
Free cash flow it threw off
$107.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$416.45

10 shares is a claim on $532.06 of net worth that earned you −$53.23 and generated $107.22 of cash last year, against $416.45 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY22 7%FY22 5%FY23 5%FY24 5%FY26 8%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 55% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $85.09 and $402.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$402.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.8%
  • fcfBase$569.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$252.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.8%
  • fcfBase$569.6M
Earnings Power Value
$85.09
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$428.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $252.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$118.59
Base14.8%$252.45
Bull19.8%$315.31

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000769520-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000769520-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000769520-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000769520-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000769520-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000769520-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000769520-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000769520-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000769520-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000769520-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000769520-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000769520-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000769520-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000769520-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000769520-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000769520-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000769520-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000769520-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000769520-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000769520-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)