MeritValue

M/I HOMES, INC.

MHOdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

M/I HOMES, INC. earns about 20% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $127.39 and $176.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.75B1$4.13B2$4.03B3$4.5B3$4.42B3
Net income$396.9M4$490.7M5$465.4M6$563.7M6$402.9M6
Operating cash flow−$16.8M7$184.1M8$552.1M9$179.7M9$137.3M9
Capital expenditure$25.3M10$9.33M11$5.77M12$8.42M12$9.61M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$42.1M7$174.7M8$546.4M9$171.3M9$127.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$236.4M13$311.5M14$732.8M14$821.6M14$689.2M14
Diluted shares29.9M28.5M28.7M28.6M27.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,158.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$147.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$46.73
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1,158.16 of net worth that earned you $147.39 and generated $46.73 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
20% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 24%FY23 18%FY24 19%FY25 13%

It earned about 20% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $127.39 and $176.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$129.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.0%
  • fcfBase$171.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$127.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.0%
  • fcfBase$171.3M
Earnings Power Value
$176.4
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$465.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$195.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $127.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$114.75
Base3.0%$127.39
Bull8.0%$151.57

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000799292-24-000014 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000799292-25-000018 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000799292-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000799292-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000799292-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000799292-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000799292-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000799292-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000799292-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000799292-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000799292-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000799292-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000799292-25-000018 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000799292-26-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)