MeritValue

Maiden Holdings, Ltd.

MHLAdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Maiden Holdings, Ltd. earns about -11% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$184.1M1$98.7M2$58.1M3$89.2M4$56.4M4
Net income$41.8M5$26.6M6−$60M7−$38.6M8−$201M8
Operating cash flow−$541.8M9−$394.4M10−$195.9M11−$59.8M12−$67.4M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$255.1M13$255.3M14$255.6M15$254.6M16$254.8M16
Cash & equivalents$74M17$26.7M18$31M19$35.4M20$25.7M20
Diluted shares84.3M86.1M87.1M101.4M99.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$20.12
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$25.5

10 shares is a claim on $4.52 of net worth that earned you −$20.12 last year, against $25.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-11% avg · 5y
FY20 9%FY21 7%FY22 -6%FY23 -6%FY24 -58%

It earned an average -11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001412100-22-000011 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001412100-23-000030 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001412100-24-000014 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001412100-25-000011 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001412100-22-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001412100-23-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001412100-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001412100-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001412100-22-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001412100-23-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001412100-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001412100-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001412100-22-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001412100-23-000030 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001412100-24-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001412100-25-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001412100-22-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001412100-23-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001412100-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001412100-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)