MeritValue

MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INC

MHKdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INC earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $61.43 and $121.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.2B1$11.7B2$11.1B3$10.8B3$10.8B3
Net income$1.03B4$25.2M5−$449M6$514.7M6$369.9M6
Operating cash flow$1.31B7$669.2M8$1.33B9$1.13B9$1.06B9
Capital expenditure$676.1M10$580.7M11$612.9M12$454.4M12$440M12
Free cash flow (derived)$633M7$88.5M8$716.3M9$679.5M9$616.2M9
Total debt$4.66B13$5.65B14$5.42B15$4.48B16$4.07B16
Cash & equivalents$268.9M17$509.6M18$642.6M19$666.6M20$856.1M20
Diluted shares69.1M64.1M63.7M63.6M62.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,341.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$59.28
Free cash flow it threw off
$98.75
Debt you’d be carrying
$651.81

10 shares is a claim on $1,341.88 of net worth that earned you $59.28 and generated $98.75 of cash last year, against $651.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 1%FY23 -2%FY24 5%FY25 3%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $61.43 and $121.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$120.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.4%
  • fcfBase$679.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$121.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.4%
  • fcfBase$679.5M
Earnings Power Value
$61.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$369.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$133.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years2.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $121.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$104.12
Base2.4%$121.27
Bull7.4%$162.34

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 2.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000851968-24-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000851968-25-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000851968-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000851968-24-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000851968-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000851968-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000851968-24-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000851968-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000851968-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000851968-24-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000851968-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000851968-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000851968-23-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000851968-24-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000851968-25-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000851968-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000851968-23-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000851968-24-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000851968-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000851968-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)