MeritValue

Magyar Bancorp, Inc.

MGYRdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Magyar Bancorp, Inc. earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.64 and $12.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$28.5M1$29.5M2$38.1M3$48.6M4$54.7M4
Net income$6.12M5$7.92M6$7.71M7$7.78M8$9.76M8
Operating cash flow$9.26M9$11.2M10$8.48M11$6.32M12$10.4M12
Capital expenditure$420,00013$3M14—$812,00015$574,00015
Free cash flow (derived)$8.84M9$8.2M10—$5.51M12$9.82M12
Total debt$23.4M16$15.6M17$59M18$28.6M19$49.1M19
Cash & equivalents$75.2M20$30.9M21$72.5M22$25.6M23$7.09M23
Diluted shares6.0M6.8M6.4M6.3M6.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$190.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.73
Debt you’d be carrying
$78.62

10 shares is a claim on $190.46 of net worth that earned you $15.64 and generated $15.73 of cash last year, against $78.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 12%FY23 17%FY24 24%FY25 20%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 110% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.64 and $12.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$10.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$8.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$8.2M
Earnings Power Value
$12.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.78M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.05
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.05
Base0.0%$12.05
Bull5.0%$16.6

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001174947-22-001281 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001174947-23-001465 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001174947-24-001365 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0002077096-25-000193 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001174947-22-001281 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001174947-23-001465 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001174947-24-001365 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0002077096-25-000193 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001174947-22-001281 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001174947-23-001465 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001174947-24-001365 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0002077096-25-000193 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001174947-21-001150 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001174947-23-001465 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0002077096-25-000193 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001174947-22-001281 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001174947-23-001465 (DebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001174947-24-001365 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0002077096-25-000193 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001174947-22-001281 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001174947-23-001465 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001174947-24-001365 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0002077096-25-000193 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)